Phoenix Housing Market Update (September 2025): Rates Easing, Inventory Stable, and Buyer Perks Abound
- Maegann Yarbrough
- Sep 13
- 3 min read
Updated: Sep 18
Fall is around the corner (yes, even if your phone is still pinging with heat advisories), and that means two things in Greater Phoenix: pumpkin spice is back, and the housing market is shifting again. I’m Maegann Yarbrough with HomeSmart—aka the AZ Real Estate Geek—and I’m back with your Phoenix metro market update, plus a feel-good story about a very determined cow at Encanterra. 🐄
Quick Take: What’s Happening Right Now
30-year fixed rate (as of filming): ~6.49%
August Phoenix-metro sales: ~4,852 homes
Active listings (Phoenix metro): ~18,000
Median sales price: $446,000
New listings (August): ~6,800
Average Days on Market: 84 days
Absorption rate: 3.72 months (if no new homes hit the market)
Sale-to-list ratio: ~94% (homes selling below asking on average)
Seller concessions present in ~57% of August sales; median concession: $10,000
Are Prices Down in Phoenix? Kind of—and Here’s Why
After the rapid run-up, the Phoenix metro is stabilizing. Prices dipped slightly year-over-year largely due to a classic supply vs. demand reset:
Supply climbed earlier in the year as more homes hit the market.
Demand stalled with buyers waiting for rate drops or better pricing.
In May–July, buyer traffic stayed muted, and we saw inventory decline again—largely from canceled/expired listings and sellers choosing to wait it out.
What Buyers Expect (and Sellers Should Know)
Today’s buyers are choosy. Many expect move-in ready homes: fresh paint, major systems in good shape, minimal repairs. Homes needing TLC tend to sit longer and face more negotiation pressure.
August 2025 by the Numbers (Phoenix Metro)
Mortgage Rates
30-year fixed ~6.49% at the time of filming
Another Fed meeting in September could nudge rates, but guidance suggests we’ll hover ~6.0–6.5% in the near term—a historically normal range (even if it feels high after the 2s and 3s).
Inventory & Sales Activity
~18,000 active listings in the MLS (Phoenix metro)
~6,800 new listings hit the market in August
~4,852 homes sold in August
Pricing & Market Pace
Median sales price: $446,000 (down from the ~2022 peak near $460K)
Average Days on Market: 84 (plan on ~3 months to go under contract, even for well-prepped homes)
Negotiation Landscape
Sale-to-list ratio ~94% → expect below-ask outcomes to make room for credits and repairs.
57% of August closings included seller concessions; median $10,000—often used toward rate buydowns or repairs (roof, A/C, carpet, etc.).
So…Is Phoenix a Buyer’s Market or a Seller’s Market?
We’ve been operating in a more buyer-friendly environment, but that’s starting to wane. If inventory drifts down and buyer demand ticks up (common in early fall), the market may rebalance.
If you’re buying:
This window is great for negotiating: credits, 2-1 buydowns, repairs.
More move-in ready options across price points.
Don’t wait around for 3% rates; marry the house, date the rate (refi later if/when it makes sense).
If you’re selling:
Prep matters: tackle deferred maintenance, paint, carpet, curb appeal.
Price strategically for the current comp set (not last year’s).
Expect concessions or repairs to be part of the conversation.
Thinking About Buying? Join My Free Homebuyer Workshop Series
Starting this month, I’m hosting a multi-part homebuyer workshop—perfect whether you’re just getting started or ready to write an offer. We’ll cover financing options, negotiation strategies (including rate buydowns and seller credits), inspections, and timelines.👉 Want an invite? Shoot me a message or join my list below.
Want the Full Report?
If you love the data, I’ve got you covered. Grab my clean monthly report + infographic and sign up for the AZ Real Estate Geek Newsletter for ongoing Phoenix market insights and seasonal home tips.
A Feel-Good Valley Story: The Cow of Encanterra (Yes, Really)
During a recent haboob, an adventurous cow reportedly escaped a nearby facility, wandered through the northern gate at Encanterra, found the golf course lake, and—naturally—went for a swim.. Cue the Sheriff’s deputies and real-deal wranglers with lassos, plus half the neighborhood snapping photos. The community rallied with Amiee’s Farm Animal Rescue, raised funds, purchased the cow from the owner, and gave her a forever home. Her name now? Mootilda 🐮🐄
Have a quirky or heartwarming Valley story? Send it my way! I’d love to feature it for our fellow Phoenicians and future neighbors.
Comments